IF THINGS weren't bad enough, we now have Influenza A (H1N1) to worry about. Looking at past pandemics, it could be (i) not so bad or (ii) real bad.

Here is how each scenario could unfold.

At least the world's stock markets seem to think the reaction to the H1N1 flu is overblown. Both the US and Singapore markets rose last week. The Straits Times Index (STI) jumped a whopping 3.6 per cent.

The optimism could be justified. After all, Sars didn't turn out as bad as everyone expected. We saw 775 deaths worldwide and 33 in Singapore. That's bad but Sars went out the door as quickly as it came in. It has not returned.

Sars slowed the economy in the first half of 2003, when the STI fell 14 per cent in January to March. Then it roared back with a 33 per cent gain over the next three months.

SOURCES: WHO, CDC

It could happen again. As luck would have it, the flu season coincides with the school year and it is about to end in the Northern Hemisphere, where most of the world lives.

The World Health Organisation and others warn that this could become a pandemic.

But are they 'crying wolf' again? We have heard it all before, like with the 1976 'Killer Flu'.

In that so-called pandemic, only two died and - ironically - the vaccine ended up killing more people than the virus.

This new H1N1 flu could be a disaster.

What if we all stay home, wear masks and watch TV for six months? It will zap the world's economies.

It is opposite from the stimulus effect that governments are trying to achieve.

We need people to get out and spend again like drunken sailors. Instead, the flu will keep them stuck indoors like nursing home residents.

When a virus catches hold, it usually comes in two waves. The first is mild. The second, deadly.

That is what happened with the 1918 Spanish flu. Of 10,313 sailors on the British Grand Fleet who caught it, only 4 died. The rest quickly recovered.

As usual, however, the virus mutated. Six months later, it had learnt how to survive in a human host. Over the next 12 months, it killed 50 million people.

It was a huge number in those days as the world's population was only one-quarter the size it is today.

The World Bank estimates that another pandemic will cost US$3 trillion ($4.5 trillion) and whack the world's GDP by 5 per cent. It would cause 71 million deaths and last 18 months to 24 months.

That would happen in the event of the most serious Level 6 pandemic.

Could we get there?

Last week, the World Health Organisation said 'a pandemic is imminent' and put out a Level 5 warning. There is only one more level to go.

First human H1N1 case

EDGAR Hernandez is 5 years old. He lives in a small town in the mountains of Mexico called La Gloria.

Edgar has the distinction of being the first patient to come down with Influenza A ( H1N1). He probably caught the virus from one of the pigs on his neighbour's pig farm.

He is a lucky boy, however, since he recovered. Asked what he thought helped him get well, he said: 'Ice cream'.

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