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Dr Money
Mistakes to avoid in hard times
They sound like good ideas, but look deeper and you'll find flaws
By Larry Haverkamp (Doc Money)
mail@AskDrMoney.com
October 13, 2009 Print Ready   Email Article  

I TALK to people who tell me their good ideas for getting through this recession. Here are three of the worst 'good ideas' I have heard. See what you can learn from them.

Click to see larger image
TEXT/GRAPHICS: LARRY HAVERKAMP & MAROO

Home loan mistakes

People tell me how proud they are to pay their home loan early. Mrs Money had the same idea and told me: 'We should own our home free and clear.'

The idea is to get the bank off your back so you don't have to worry about the terrible things it might do to you.

Think again.

First, interest is super-cheap these days. The bank increased our home loan rate last month but it is still only 1.6 per cent a year.

Once you pay it off, you'll need to buy another property to get it back.

A second advantage is that a loan unlocks the cash in your home. It could come in handy, especially if we don't have the anticipated V-shaped recovery.

One more thing: Switching from an HDB loan to a bank loan looks smart on the surface, but I advise against it. If interest rates rise, bank interest rates will rise faster than HDB rates.

HDB also has a heart. It won't repossess your flat if you miss a few monthly payments. Banks are likely to do so.

Investing and spending mistakes

Should you spend to help the economy or save to help yourself?

My advice is to avoid No1. It's because your spending has a small effect on Singapore's GDP but a huge effect on you. Leave the economy to economists, while you keep saving until the storm has passed.

Investing in a recession is also risky.

The latest fad is gold. It's booming and rose to over $1,000 an ounce last week.

On the downside, gold is only a commodity, like coffee, tin or coal. It pays no interest or dividend and the only way it will make money is if the price keeps rising.

Gold jewellery is even worse. Like all luxury goods, it has huge mark-ups. A rule of thumb is the price will drop 50 per cent once you make your purchase and leave the store. It's pretty, but a lousy investment.

Mrs Money and I collected a shoebox of gold trinkets and finally decided: 'Enough is enough.'

Nowadays, we exchange cute homemade cards instead of expensive gifts.

Really dumb ideas

One person told me that since he lost his job, he has more time to study 4-D. The Singapore Pools website reveals winning numbers drawn in the past, which helps him select the numbers likely to come up now.

Forget it. That system fails like all others.

When it comes to gambling, the odds are against you and the only sure way to win is not to play. A recession is the perfect time to take a break.

The same goes for smoking and drinking. They are expensive. Dropping them is a good way to save money since air and tap water are free. You also get a side benefit of improved health.


Is the recession really over?

YOU can come out from hiding and spend, spend, spend. Stock and property markets confirm the economy's V-shaped recovery.

The other view is: Who knows?

We have just turned the corner at the bottom of the 'V' and could be on the way up or we could bump along the bottom or we might go up and then turn down again - a double-dip recession.

The good news is the vast majority of economists say it's a 'V'. The recession is over.

The bad news is these are the same experts who failed to see this recession coming in the first place. Why believe them now?

Good indicator

US unemployment is a good indicator of the worldwide economy. It now sits at 9.8 per cent compared to 3.3 per cent in Singapore. We'll be out of the woods when the US unemployment rate drops below 6 per cent, but it won't be soon.

In the meantime, (i) keep your job, (ii) don't take big risks and (iii) don't lock up your money in investments that you can't touch for 20 years.

The golden rule is 'stay liquid'. You might need the cash.

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