Singapore’s export growth slowed last month
Increase in non-oil domestic exports exceeds growth forecast of 3.9%
After a jump in July, Singapore's export growth slowed last month, with continuing signs of weakness in electronic shipments.
Non-oil domestic exports (Nodx) rose 5 per cent from a year ago, higher than a Bloomberg consensus forecast of 3.9 per cent growth, according to Enterprise Singapore data released yesterday .
This increase, which continues to be supported by pharmaceuticals, comes on the heels of an 11 per cent surge in July.
Electronic exports dipped 1.5 per cent last month, performing better than the 5.8 per cent decrease in the previous month.
This was mainly due to fall in exports of diodes and transistors, parts of personal computers and integrated circuits.
However, the electronics Nodx has been shrinking year-on-year since last December, with analysts expressing concern over spillover from the trade spat between the US and China.
Strong showing in non-electronic shipments last month due to pharmaceuticals offset this slip.
Non-electronic Nodx grew by 7.8 per cent last month, less than half the 18.6 per cent rise the month before, with pharmaceuticals expanding 33.4 per cent.
Also supporting its growth was an increase in food preparations and measuring instruments shipments.
ING chief economist and head of research for Asia-Pacific Robert Carnell expressed concern over this "rather narrow set of components that seems to be doing very well", adding that if these were overtaken by new developments elsewhere, growth could soften again.
Overall, domestic exports to Singapore's top 10 markets grew, on the back of higher exports to the US, Europe and Indonesia.
But shipments to China – Singapore’s biggest single market – fell 17.8 per cent year-on-year last month, with weak electronic shipments.
Experts are not too optimistic about the outlook for exports, with Nomura research analysts Euben Paracuelles and Brian Tan expecting electronics exports to remain weak.
They noted there are signs of a slowdown in global semiconductor shipments and electronics demand.
Maybank Kim Eng analysts Chua Hak Bin and Lee Ju Ye added that trade numbers will continue to be "distorted" in the third quarter of the year, as companies stock up in anticipation of higher US and China tariffs.
This comes on expectations of US President Donald Trump introducing further tariffs on US$200 billion (S$275 billion) worth of Chinese imports in the coming days, with IG market strategist Pan Jingyi saying it will likely affect the outlook for trade-dependent Singapore.
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